Even as state and county officials contemplate the end of the pandemic, health officials warn residents to remember the last time COVID-19 cases declined significantly.
The state Department of Health has reported increasingly fewer daily cases both statewide and on the Big Island over the past week, leading Lt. Gov. Josh Green to say on Monday that he expects measures such as the Safe Travels program and indoor mask mandates could be safely dropped as early as late March.
Mayor Mitch Roth said Friday he has had discussions with Gov. David Ige and health officials about curtailing or removing entirely the county’s restrictions on indoor gathering sizes, but is deferring to the state’s leadership.
But DOH spokesman Brooks Baehr noted that this is not the first time state officials have been optimistic about the imminent end of the pandemic.
“To borrow a quote from the great Yogi Berra, ‘It’s deja vu all over again,’” Baehr said, pointing out that the similar optimism at the end of the delta surge in mid-2021 was cut short by the rise of the far more contagious omicron variant, which led to a surge in cases several times larger than the delta surge.
“We had delta, it seemed to pass, and people let their guards down because they felt it was over,” Baehr said. “So far, what has happened with omicron mirrors delta.”
Baehr said nothing currently indicates that another variant is emerging that could overrun the state yet again.
On Friday, Baehr said there were 29 known cases of BA.2 — a more transmissible subvariant “cousin” to omicron — in Hawaii, which he said seems to indicate that the new variant is not threatening to become the dominant strain here.
Edward Desmond, administrator of the DOH’s State Labs Division, said in a statement that BA.2 does not appear to be more dangerous than omicron, based on current observations.
“It’s good to know we haven’t found more cases of the BA.2 sub-variant,” Desmond said. “It seems Hawaii’s high vaccination rate coupled with people who have a degree of immunity from prior infection may be preventing BA.2 from expanding rapidly or displacing the original omicron variant.
“We are also encouraged by preliminary research suggesting BA.2 does not send more people to the hospital than original omicron. Of course, original omicron is a dangerous virus and people should still protect themselves by wearing masks and making sure they are up to date with their vaccines.”
Baehr said residents should look forward to living lives more normally if and when COVID restrictions are lifted, but urged them to “be smart about it.”
He noted there are nearly 400,000 Hawaii residents who are eligible to receive a booster shot but have not done so yet, and that getting that booster would be a “great favor” for themselves and everyone around them.
While no imminent reduction in COVID restrictions has been officially announced by the state or county, Roth noted that the upcoming departure of National Guard personnel in mid-March will necessitate a scaling-back of the testing sites they have been assisting with.
Roth said he is discussing the possibility of distributing home test kits to make up for that testing shortfall.
“We’re going to be moving away from a pandemic to an endemic response,” Roth said, echoing an announcement by California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday, wherein Newsom declared that his state would treat the coronavirus as a manageable risk, rather than a all-consuming crisis.
“I’m pretty optimistic that’s something we can do,” Roth said.
Email Michael Brestovansky at mbrestovansky@hawaiitribune-herald.com.